By Amy Alkon
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from Advice Goddess Blog.
Fudging Stats On The Dangers Of Getting Killed By Muslim Terrorists: Politics First; Facts, Dead Last
Truly terrific post by ev psych doctoral student Jesse Marczyk at Psychology Today digging into confirmation bias and the dishonest way stats are presented to make an argument that doesn’t hold water:
The first article on the chopping block was published on the New York Times website in June of last year. The article is entitled, “Homegrown extremists tied to deadlier toll than Jihadists in U.S. since 9/11,” and it attempts to persuade the reader that we, as a nation, are all too worried about the threat Islamic terrorism poses. In other words, American fears of terrorism are wildly out of proportion to the actual threat it presents. This article attempted to highlight the fact that, in terms of the number of bodies, right-wing, anti-government violence was twice as dangerous as Jihadist attacks in the US since 9/11 (48 deaths from non-Muslims; 26 by Jihadists). Since we seem to dedicate more psychological worry to Islam, something was wrong there There are three important parts of that claim to be considered: first, a very important word in that last sentence is “was,” as the body count evened out by early December (link is external) in that year (currently at 48 to 45). This updated statistic yields some interesting questions: were those people who feared both types of attacks equally (if they existed) being rational or not on December 1st? Were those who feared right-wing attacks more than Muslim ones suddenly being irrational on the 2nd? The idea these questions are targeting is whether or not fears can only be viewed as proportionate (or rational) with the aid of hindsight. If that’s the case, rather than saying that some fears are overblown or irrational, a more accurate statement would be that such fears “have not yet been founded.” Unless those fears have a specific cut-off date (e.g., the fear of being killed in a terrorist attack during a given time period), making claims about their validity is something that one cannot do particularly well.
The second important point of the article to consider is that the count begins one day after a Muslim attack that killed over 3,000 people (immediately; that doesn’t count those who were injured or later died as a consequence of the events). Accordingly, if that count is set back just slightly, the fear of being killed by a …Click Here To Read The Full Story >>>